DTN News - IRAN NUCLEAR FACTORS: Iran Misjudged West's Resolve In Nuclear Standoff - Analyst
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada / TEHRAN, Iran - November 22, 2011: Grudgingly admired in the past by the West for its negotiating skills and by the Iranian nation for its uncompromising stance, Iran's leadership may have misjudged recent confrontational tactics in its nuclear standoff with big powers, analysts say.
Miscalculating both its own bargaining strength and world resolve on the nuclear dispute has weakened Iran's familiar blend of brinkmanship and conciliation, analysts say.
Iran dismissed on Tuesday fresh sanctions imposed by the United States, Britain and Canada, saying such steps would only intensify Iranian popular support for the nuclear program, which Washington and its allies say is a cover to build bombs.
The new sanctions target Iran's energy and financial sectors and France has proposed "unprecedented" new punitive action, including freezing the assets of the Iranian central bank and suspending purchases of Iran's oil.
The news pushed benchmark Brent crude above $107, reflecting concerns about escalating tensions with the world's fifth biggest crude exporter.
It is unclear how Iran's hardline conservative leadership will act, with hard calculation, national pride and Islamic outlook all part of the equation. But senior officials have repeatedly hinted that diplomacy would be the first recourse.
With international tension over Iran's disputed nuclear ambitions mounting, the clerical establishment is now ultimately cautious and tends to prefer a controlled crisis as opposed to full-blown confrontation, analysts and diplomats said.
"The regime is very worried about a military strike. They have mishandled the issue and it is now very difficult for them to reach any kind of compromise," said a senior European diplomat in Tehran, who asked not to be named.
"Also they are worried about a spread of the Arab Spring (popular protests) into Iran and cannot risk more economic pressure that can cause street protests."
Analysts say ordinary Iranians are becoming less admiring and more wary of the Islamic elite's uncompromising nuclear stance that has provoked international sanctions, given a perceived lack of transparency in the program that has raised fears abroad of a covert push to develop atomic bombs.
The sanctions are meant to coerce Iran into suspending sensitive nuclear work and negotiate seriously on a peaceful solution. The United States and Israel have not ruled out military strikes on Iranian nuclear sites if diplomacy and sanctions are ultimately judged to be futile.
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