DTN News - JAPAN / CHINA NEWS: Thinking About The Unthinkable ~ War In The Senkakus
(NSI News Source Info) TORONTO, Canada - October 9, 2012: I am more sanguine than most about how the Japanese Self-Defense Forces stack up against China’s People’s Liberation Army. The SDF would acquit itself well in combat if commanders artfully combined all warfighting implements at their disposal, from ships to aircraft to shore-fired missiles. Tokyo has options; it even has advantages.
Judging from the contents of my email inbox the past few weeks, however, some Japanese commentators mistook this guardedly upbeat assessment for a prediction that Japan would prevail in any trial of arms—including a clash over the Senkaku/Diaoyu archipelago, west of the southernmost tip of the Ryukyus chain. Au contraire. Extolling the JSDF’s material and human excellence in general terms is a far cry from predicting a Japanese triumph in any particular contingency. There are no sure things in war.
Furthermore, a Senkakus conflict is probably the hardest case the JSDF may confront. Glance at the map. Geography may not be destiny, but it molds destiny. The archipelago lies within easy reach of PLA air, naval, and missile forces concentrated opposite nearby Taiwan. Advantage: China. On the allied side, Okinawa is home to U.S. Marine and Air Force bases as well as the JSDF’s Naha Air Base. It is situated a couple of hundred miles away, roughly the same distance as the mainland coast. That’s no small thing. But the Senkakus are remote from major bases in the Japanese home islands. The U.S. naval station at Yokosuka, for example, lies over 1,000 miles distant.
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